Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
K. Bielik 90+6'
L. Plange 87'
S. Hogan 56'
L. Taylor 7'
1/30/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Derby42%
×Draw30%
Birmingham29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.17
Birmingham
0.92

Derby creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 8 away

creates per match

Derby
1.25
Birmingham
0.78

allows per match

Derby
1.06
Birmingham
1.08

finishing

Derby-0.03on par
Birmingham-0.28scores less

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Derby or draw
71%
Derby or Birmingham
70%
Draw or Birmingham
58%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
18%
Birmingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
69%
Derby 2+ goals
33%
Derby 3+ goals
11%
Birmingham 1+ goals
60%
Birmingham 2+ goals
23%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
59%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.25 + Birmingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Birmingham attack 0.78 + Derby defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Derby scores more
42%
level
30%
Birmingham scores more
29%

Derby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
K. BielikDerbyDerby · D
7.6

Match Events

7'
L. Taylor↳ O. Hernández
41'
F. Ebosele← K. Jóźwiak
56'
S. Hogan↳ R. Woods
57'
C. Kazim-Richards← C. Forsyth
62'
Ryan Woods
63'
Neil Etheridge
68'
I. Šunjić← R. Woods
69'
K. Bielik← L. Thompson
70'
Gary Gardner
80'
G. Friend← L. Taylor
83'
J. James← J. Bacuna
87'
L. Plange↳ T. Lawrence
89'
Jordan James
90+6'
K. Bielik↳ R. Stearman

Possession

60%Derby

Shots

16Derby

Pass accuracy

53%Derby

Statistics

DerbyBirmingham
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots13
7Corners6
4Fouls18
Shots
16Total Shots13
6On Target4
5Off Target4
5Blocked5
12Inside Box7
4Outside Box6
Passing
60%Possession40%
399Total Passes262
286Accurate Passes164
72%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
4Fouls18
0Yellow Cards4
4Offsides0

Championship: Derby 2–2 Birmingham

Derby and Birmingham drew 2-2 in Championship on January 30, 2022.

Goals: L. Taylor (7'), S. Hogan (56'), L. Plange (87'), K. Bielik (90+6').

Derby controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.