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Derby vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
J. Marriott 73'
H. Wilson 55'
M. Bennett 53'
L. Jutkiewicz 10'
11/3/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Derby44%
×Draw28%
Birmingham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.29
Birmingham
0.97

Derby creates 33% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Birmingham
0.94

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Birmingham
1.35

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw
72%
Derby or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
56%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
Birmingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
72%
Derby 2+ goals
37%
Derby 3+ goals
14%
Birmingham 1+ goals
62%
Birmingham 2+ goals
25%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
61%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Derby scores more
44%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
28%

Derby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. WilsonDerbyDerby · M
8.5

Match Events

10'
L. Jutkiewicz
15'
M. Bennett← M. Waghorn
51'
Lee Camp
53'
M. Bennett↳ C. Forsyth
55'
H. Wilson
65'
Gary Gardner
73'
J. Marriott↳ C. Forsyth
74'
W. Harding← G. Gardner
82'
Michael Morrison
90+3'
F. Jozefzoon← J. Marriott
90+2'
B. Johnson← D. Holmes

Possession

70%Derby

Shots

18Derby

Pass accuracy

59%Derby

Statistics

DerbyBirmingham
Overview
70%Possession30%
18Total Shots7
6Corners7
5Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots7
10On Target3
6Off Target1
2Blocked3
9Inside Box5
9Outside Box2
Passing
70%Possession30%
595Total Passes249
495Accurate Passes142
83%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
5Fouls11
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Derby vs Birmingham

Derby beat Birmingham 3-1 in Championship on November 3, 2018.

Goals: L. Jutkiewicz (10'), M. Bennett (53'), H. Wilson (55'), J. Marriott (73').

Derby controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.