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Derby vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
8/13/2022League OneLeague One · Round 3Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby45%
×Draw25%
Barnsley30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.54
Barnsley
1.21

Derby creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 118 away

creates per match

Derby
1.76
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Derby
0.83
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Derby or draw
70%
Derby or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
55%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
23%
Barnsley wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
79%
Derby 2+ goals
45%
Derby 3+ goals
20%
Barnsley 1+ goals
70%
Barnsley 2+ goals
34%
Barnsley 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
60%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Derby scores more
45%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
30%

Derby at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Derby 2–1 Barnsley

Derby beat Barnsley 2-1 in League One on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.