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Barnsley vs Derby — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Derby
Derby
2/25/2023League OneLeague One · Round 34Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Barnsley37%
×Draw26%
Derby37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.33
Derby
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 46 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Derby
1.39

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Derby
0.98

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
63%
Barnsley or Derby
74%
Draw or Derby
63%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
16%
Derby wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
74%
Barnsley 2+ goals
38%
Barnsley 3+ goals
15%
Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
39%
Derby 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
50%
Derby (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.33

Derby attack 1.39 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barnsley scores more
37%
level
26%
Derby scores more
37%

Barnsley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnsley vs Derby

Barnsley beat Derby 4-1 in League One on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.