Deportivo Universitario 0–1 Alianza FC

Deportivo Universitario

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza FC

R. Perdomo 64'

3/7/2026

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 8Estadio Universidad Latina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Deportivo Universitario37%

×Draw29%

Alianza FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchAlianza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.12

Deportivo Universitario

1.16

Alianza FC

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

1.15

creates per match

0.97

1.27

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.15

Alianza FC

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Universitario

1.27

Alianza FC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

Alianza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Universitario ↓

Alianza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Universitario or draw

65%

Deportivo Universitario or Alianza FC

71%

Draw or Alianza FC

63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+

15%

Alianza FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals

11%

Alianza FC 1+ goals

67%

Alianza FC 2+ goals

31%

Alianza FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)

51%

Alianza FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Universitario at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 128 matches

Alianza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.15 + Alianza FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Alianza FC attack 0.97 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Universitario scores more

37%

level

29%

Alianza FC scores more

35%

Deportivo Universitario at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

37'

41'

45'

54'

C. Rodriguez← D. Vargas

64'

R. Perdomo

69'

J. Barrera

71'

E. Bolanos← E. Giron

71'

B. Wittle← A. McKenzie

Deportivo

Alianza

12

2

3

5

13

18

⚽

11

22

77

7

19

▼

1

2

5

16

4

7

14

▼

Giron

24

Rangel

10

▼

McKenzie

21

Pimentel

35

Betegon

71'▲E. Bolanos←▼E. Giron

71'▲B. Wittle←▼A. McKenzie

Deportivo Universitario substitutes

12Cruz11Moreno39Vergara18Acosta47Yerena50Pinzon22Reina9Bolanos17Wittle25Ampudia

Manager: Jair Palacios

54'▲C. Rodriguez←▼D. Vargas

Alianza FC substitutes

30Melgar15Galvez31Machado26Garces16Mitre8Rangel28Alvarado17Asprilla27Mathews40Rodriguez

Match Recap: Deportivo Universitario vs Alianza FC

Alianza FC beat Deportivo Universitario 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on March 7, 2026.

Goals: R. Perdomo (64').

The match was played at Estadio Universidad Latina.

Deportivo Universitario vs Alianza FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Universitario vs Alianza FC