Alianza FC vs Deportivo Universitario — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 129+ matches
Alianza FC40%
Deportivo Universitario31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza FC creates 17% more chances
Season form · 132 home / 129 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches
Deportivo Universitario away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19
Deportivo Universitario attack 1.01 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Alianza FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Plaza AmadorAlianza FC
UMECIT
San Francisco FC
CD Arabe Unido
Veraguas
Sporting San Miguelito
Independiente de La Chorrera
Tauro FCDeportivo Universitario
Union Cocle
SD Atletico Nacional
HerreraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alianza FC host Deportivo Universitario on Tuesday, 18 March 2025 at 01:30. The match is part of the Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018/2019 season.
Alianza FC 0 – 1 Deportivo Universitario
Deportivo Universitario beat Alianza FC 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on March 18, 2025.
Goals: A. Fruto (80').
The match was played at Estadio Javier Cruz in Panama City.