Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Tachira FC vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
3/22/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo (San Cristóbal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC61%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Anzoategui17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.81
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.82

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 121% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 26 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.80
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
0.73
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
83%
Deportivo Tachira FC or Deportivo Anzoategui
77%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
39%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
35%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
27%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
79%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
61%
level
23%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
17%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Tachira FC 2 – 2 Deportivo Anzoategui

Deportivo Tachira FC and Deportivo Anzoategui drew 2-2 in Primera División on March 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo (San Cristóbal).