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Deportivo Anzoategui vs Deportivo Tachira FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
CANC
00:00
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
8/31/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui30%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Tachira FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.23

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 147 away

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.12

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.33
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.00

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw
59%
Deportivo Anzoategui or Deportivo Tachira FC
71%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
70%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
11%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
42%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.12 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
30%
level
29%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
41%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Anzoategui host Deportivo Tachira FC

August 31, 2019: Deportivo Anzoategui take on Deportivo Tachira FC in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Anzoategui host Deportivo Tachira FC at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.