Deportivo Tachira FC 0–1 Deportes Tolima

Deportivo Tachira FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Tolima

K. Florez 65'

2/20/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 2Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC45%

×Draw24%

Deportes Tolima31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Tachira FCExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.32

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.64

Deportes Tolima

1.32

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.57

creates per match

0.93

1.71

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.57

Deportes Tolima

0.93

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.71

Deportes Tolima

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw

69%

Deportivo Tachira FC or Deportes Tolima

76%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

23%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

49%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

23%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

73%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

38%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

59%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.57 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Deportes Tolima attack 0.93 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

45%

level

24%

Deportes Tolima scores more

31%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

J. Camargo

Deportivo Tachira FC · G

7.9

Match Events

52'

J. Villalpando← G. Lozano

59'

Juan Pablo Nieto

60'

B. Rovira← J. Nieto

60'

J. P. Torres Patino← L. Sandoval

60'

K. Florez← J. Gonzalez

63'

Anderson Angulo

65'

K. Florez

71'

Delvin Alfonzo

77'

F. Provenzano← C. Calzadilla

77'

S. Guzman← C. Trujillo

77'

J. Valencia← A. Parra Osorio

78'

L. Gonzalez← D. Alfonzo

80'

Nahuel Lusnig

85'

P. Camacho← L. Lusnig

85'

J. Balza← C. Sosa

87'

Rodrigo Pollero

90+1'

Luis Daniel González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoDeportes

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots8

0.84Expected Goals (xG)1.96

4Corners2

6Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target5

4Off Target2

3Blocked1

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

292Total Passes535

213Accurate Passes445

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.20Goals Prevented0.20

Discipline

6Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1