Deportes Tolima 0–1 Deportivo Tachira FC

Deportes Tolima

Pens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Tachira FC

L. Gonzalez 90' (pen)

2/27/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 2Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportes Tolima69%

×Draw22%

Deportivo Tachira FC9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Tachira FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.47

Deportes Tolima

1.77

Deportivo Tachira FC

0.47

Deportes Tolima creates 277% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.74

creates per match

0.54

0.41

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.74

Deportivo Tachira FC

0.54

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.41

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.80

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Deportes Tolima-0.14scores less

Deportivo Tachira FC-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

91%

Deportes Tolima or Deportivo Tachira FC

78%

Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC

31%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

41%

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

83%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

53%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

26%

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

37%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

8%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

88%

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.41 · 5 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.74 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 0.54 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

69%

level

22%

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

9%

Deportes Tolima at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Sandoval

Deportes Tolima · F

7.7

Match Events

3'

Cristian Arrieta

11'

Kelvin Florez

59'

J. Gonzalez← K. Florez

59'

L. Sandoval← J. P. Torres Patino

60'

S. Guzman← J. Nieto

64'

L. Gonzalez← D. Alfonzo

72'

J. Balza← C. Calzadilla

73'

L. Lusnig← J. Sanchez

76'

J. Valencia← A. Parra Osorio

83'

Jersson GonzálezGoal cancelled

84'

L. Zuniga← F. Provenzano

86'

J. Mera← C. Arrieta

90'

L. GonzalezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesDeportivo

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots5

0.67Expected Goals (xG)0.89

3Corners3

12Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots5

3On Target1

7Off Target3

0Blocked1

4Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

442Total Passes299

365Accurate Passes210

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.44Goals Prevented0.44

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Tachira FC

Deportivo Tachira FC beat Deportes Tolima 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 27, 2026.

Goals: L. Gonzalez (90' pen).

Deportes Tolima controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Tachira FC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Tachira FC