Deportivo Tachira FC 2–0 Angostura FC

Deportivo Tachira FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Angostura FC

9/3/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC58%

×Draw23%

Angostura FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Tachira FCExpected goals in this matchAngostura FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.90

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.77

Angostura FC

0.90

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 97% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 30 away

1.80

creates per match

1.07

0.73

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.80

Angostura FC

1.07

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

0.73

Angostura FC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Angostura FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw

81%

Deportivo Tachira FC or Angostura FC

77%

Draw or Angostura FC

42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

33%

Angostura FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

83%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

53%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

26%

Angostura FC 1+ goals

59%

Angostura FC 2+ goals

23%

Angostura FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

75%

Angostura FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 150 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.80 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

58%

level

23%

Angostura FC scores more

19%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff