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Angostura FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC — Primera División 2018

Angostura FC
Angostura FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
7/1/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 17Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Angostura FC34%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Tachira FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angostura FC
1.06
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 147 away

creates per match

Angostura FC
1.13
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.12

allows per match

Angostura FC
1.13
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.00

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw
63%
Angostura FC or Deportivo Tachira FC
71%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
66%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+
13%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals
65%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
29%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)
48%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.13 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.12 + Angostura FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Angostura FC scores more
34%
level
29%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
37%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Angostura FC 0–1 Deportivo Tachira FC

Deportivo Tachira FC beat Angostura FC 1-0 in Primera División on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya in Ciudad Bolívar.