Deportivo Santani 2–3 Fernando De La Mora

Deportivo Santani

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fernando De La Mora

J. Monges 90'

M. Gonzalez 88'

D. Almada 85', 80'

A. Valenzuela 9'

7/20/2026

Division Intermedia · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Deportivo Santani38%

×Draw28%

Fernando De La Mora34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo SantaniExpected goals in this matchFernando De La Mora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Deportivo Santani

1.23

Fernando De La Mora

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 114 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.12

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Deportivo Santani

1.20

Fernando De La Mora

1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Santani

1.12

Fernando De La Mora

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Santani ↓

Fernando De La Mora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Santani or draw

66%

Deportivo Santani or Fernando De La Mora

72%

Draw or Fernando De La Mora

62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Santani wins by 2+

16%

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Santani 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Santani 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Santani 3+ goals

13%

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals

68%

Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals

32%

Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)

53%

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Santani at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.26 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Santani attack 1.20 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.17 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Santani scores more

38%

level

28%

Fernando De La Mora scores more

34%

Deportivo Santani at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Valenzuela

15'

Goal Disallowed - video review

80'

85'

88'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff