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Deportivo Roca vs CAI — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
CAI
CAI
L. Volken 90+2'
J. Morán 42'
J. Aynol 40'
M. Villegas 30'
8/31/2014Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 2Estadio Luís Maiolino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Roca45%
×Draw25%
CAI29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Roca
1.53
CAI
1.18

Deportivo Roca creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

creates per match

Deportivo Roca
1.44
CAI
1.23

allows per match

Deportivo Roca
1.13
CAI
1.62

finishing

Deportivo Roca+0.00on par
CAI+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Roca ↓

CAI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Roca or draw
71%
Deportivo Roca or CAI
75%
Draw or CAI
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
23%
CAI wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
20%
CAI 1+ goals
69%
CAI 2+ goals
33%
CAI 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
61%
CAI (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Roca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

CAI away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Roca attack 1.44 + CAI defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

CAI attack 1.23 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Roca scores more
45%
level
25%
CAI scores more
29%

Deportivo Roca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Roca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
M. Villegas
40'
J. Aynol
42'
J. Morán
90+2'
L. Volken

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Roca vs CAI

CAI beat Deportivo Roca 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on August 31, 2014.

Goals: M. Villegas (30'), J. Aynol (40'), J. Morán (42'), L. Volken (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Luís Maiolino in General Roca, Provincia de Río Negro.