CAI 1–0 Deportivo Roca: Result & Stats

CAI

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Roca

M. Rilo 50'

6/28/2015

Torneo Federal A · Round 15Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

CAI59%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Roca12%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAIExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Roca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.45

CAI

1.34

Deportivo Roca

0.45

CAI creates 198% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

1.40

creates per match

0.14

0.75

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

CAI

1.40

Deportivo Roca

0.14

allows per match

CAI

0.75

Deportivo Roca

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAI+0.00on par

Deportivo Roca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAI ↓

Deportivo Roca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

CAI or draw

88%

CAI or Deportivo Roca

72%

Draw or Deportivo Roca

41%

Winning margin

CAI wins by 2+

29%

Deportivo Roca wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

CAI 1+ goals

74%

CAI 2+ goals

39%

CAI 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Roca 1+ goals

36%

Deportivo Roca 2+ goals

8%

Deportivo Roca 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

CAI (draw refunded)

83%

Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAI at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Deportivo Roca away — creates 0.14, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAI attack 1.40 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Deportivo Roca attack 0.14 + CAI defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CAI scores more

59%

level

28%

Deportivo Roca scores more

12%

CAI at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CAI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

M. Rilo

58'

J. Morán← M. Germi

58'

J. Vázquez← J. Valenzuela

73'

E. Díaz← H. Castro

83'

J. Molina← M. Vargas

CAI

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

83'▲J. Molina←▼M. Vargas

CAI substitutes

Molina

58'▲J. Morán←▼M. Germi

58'▲J. Vázquez←▼J. Valenzuela

73'▲E. Díaz←▼H. Castro

Deportivo Roca substitutes

MoránVázquezDíaz

Torneo Federal A: CAI 1–0 Deportivo Roca

CAI beat Deportivo Roca 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on June 28, 2015.

Goals: M. Rilo (50').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia in Comodoro Rivadavia, Provincia del Chubut.

CAI vs Deportivo Roca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: CAI 1–0 Deportivo Roca