Deportivo Rincon 0–2 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Deportivo Rincon

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Defensores de Belgrano VR

J. Bassani 90+3'

M. Machado 72'

9/29/2024

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Gremio de Los Petroleros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Deportivo Rincon50%

×Draw28%

Defensores de Belgrano VR21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo RinconExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Belgrano VR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.76

Deportivo Rincon

1.33

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.76

Deportivo Rincon creates 75% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 115 away

1.34

creates per match

0.90

0.61

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Deportivo Rincon

1.34

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Rincon

0.61

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Rincon+0.00on par

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Rincon ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Rincon or draw

79%

Deportivo Rincon or Defensores de Belgrano VR

72%

Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR

50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Rincon wins by 2+

24%

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Rincon 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Rincon 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Rincon 3+ goals

15%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

53%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

18%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Rincon (draw refunded)

70%

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Rincon at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.61 · 38 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Rincon attack 1.34 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Deportivo Rincon defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Rincon scores more

50%

level

28%

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

21%

Deportivo Rincon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Rincon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Lazaneo← L. Inostroza

56'

P. Vergara← J. Juncos

56'

59'

59'

72'

73'

73'

L. Calo Tizón← E. Cano

75'

F. Zaupa← M. Machado

79'

L. Monzón← B. Aranda

79'

I. Valsangiácomo← F. Ciampichetti

90+3'

J. Bassani

Deportivo

Defensores

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Abaurre

46'▲J. Lazaneo←▼L. Inostroza

56'▲P. Vergara←▼J. Juncos

56'▲F. Inda←▼F. Miguel

73'▲H. Rueda←▼E. Gómez

73'▲L. Calo Tizón←▼E. Cano

Deportivo Rincon substitutes

LazaneoVergaraIndaRuedaTizón

Manager: J. Iturrería

59'▲J. Bassani←▼M. Jaime

59'▲R. Seratto←▼L. Pérez

75'▲F. Zaupa←▼M. Machado

79'▲L. Monzón←▼B. Aranda

79'▲I. Valsangiácomo←▼F. Ciampichetti

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

BassaniSerattoZaupaMonzónValsangiácomo

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Rincon 0–2 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Defensores de Belgrano VR beat Deportivo Rincon 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Machado (72'), J. Bassani (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros in Rincón de Los Sauces, Provincia del Neuquén.

Deportivo Rincon vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Rincon 0–2 Defensores de Belgrano VR