Defensores de Belgrano VR 1–2 Deportivo Rincon

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Rincon

R. Seratto 14'

O. Muñoz 70'

E. Gómez 21'

10/6/2024

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR47%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Rincon23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Rincon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.75

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.21

Deportivo Rincon

0.75

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 61% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 37 away

1.11

creates per match

0.62

0.88

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.11

Deportivo Rincon

0.62

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.88

Deportivo Rincon

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Deportivo Rincon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Deportivo Rincon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

77%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or Deportivo Rincon

70%

Draw or Deportivo Rincon

53%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Rincon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

70%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

34%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Rincon 1+ goals

53%

Deportivo Rincon 2+ goals

17%

Deportivo Rincon 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

67%

Deportivo Rincon (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 111 matches

Deportivo Rincon away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.11 + Deportivo Rincon defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Deportivo Rincon attack 0.62 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

47%

level

30%

Deportivo Rincon scores more

23%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Seratto

21'

E. Gómez

46'

J. Cartechini← M. Machado

46'

J. Moreira← L. Mellado

46'

O. Muñoz← F. Inda

48'

J. Bassani← L. Pérez

62'

M. Jaime← F. Ciampichetti

62'

I. Valsangiácomo← R. Seratto

62'

L. Inostroza← E. Gómez

66'

70'

70'

85'

Defensores

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Iturrería

46'▲J. Cartechini←▼M. Machado

48'▲J. Bassani←▼L. Pérez

62'▲M. Jaime←▼F. Ciampichetti

62'▲I. Valsangiácomo←▼R. Seratto

70'▲J. Kruger←▼B. Aranda

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

CartechiniBassaniJaimeValsangiácomoKruger

Manager: A. Abaurre

46'▲J. Moreira←▼L. Mellado

46'▲O. Muñoz←▼F. Inda

62'▲L. Inostroza←▼E. Gómez

66'▲P. Vergara←▼H. Rueda

85'▲A. Páez←▼M. Aruga

Deportivo Rincon substitutes

MoreiraMuñozInostrozaVergaraPáez