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Deportivo Riestra vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
A. Díaz 86'
J. Herrera 83'
10/18/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Guillermo Laza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Riestra42%
×Draw28%
Atletico Tucuman30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
1.27
Atletico Tucuman
1.02

Deportivo Riestra creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
1.17
Atletico Tucuman
1.10

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.94
Atletico Tucuman
1.38

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.08on par
Atletico Tucuman-0.52scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
70%
Deportivo Riestra or Atletico Tucuman
72%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
19%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
64%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
27%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
59%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.17 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.10 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
42%
level
28%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
30%

Deportivo Riestra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
N. BenegasDeportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra · F
8.2

Match Events

46'
N. Benegas← A. Alonso
46'
M. Sanabria← R. Sayavedra
51'
A. Díaz← B. Sánchez
59'
Jonathan HerreraPenalty cancelled
67'
M. Estigarribia← F. Nicola
73'
Mateo Coronel
83'
J. Herrera↳ N. Benegas
84'
L. Rodríguez← M. Bajamich
84'
F. Bonfiglio← M. Coronel
85'
R. Cavallera← J. Herrera
86'
A. Díaz↳ N. Benegas
89'
Alexander DíazGoal confirmed
90'
T. Villoldo← A. Díaz
90'
J. Giani← G. Acosta
90'
M. Brandán← G. Ferrari

Possession

32%Deportivo

Shots

6Deportivo

Pass accuracy

39%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoAtletico
Overview
32%Possession68%
6Total Shots16
1.09Expected Goals (xG)1.17
2Corners6
9Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots16
4On Target5
2Off Target9
0Blocked2
5Inside Box10
1Outside Box6
Passing
32%Possession68%
208Total Passes446
106Accurate Passes356
51%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
-0.91Goals Prevented-0.91
Discipline
9Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Deportivo Riestra vs Atletico Tucuman

Deportivo Riestra beat Atletico Tucuman 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 18, 2024.

Goals: J. Herrera (83'), A. Díaz (86').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Laza in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.