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Atletico Tucuman vs Deportivo Riestra — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
A. Alonso 79'
J. Herrera 70'
N. Sansotre 39'
2/5/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 3Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Atletico Tucuman50%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Riestra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
1.31
Deportivo Riestra
0.76

Atletico Tucuman creates 72% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.36
Deportivo Riestra
0.68

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
0.84
Deportivo Riestra
1.25

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.08on par
Deportivo Riestra+0.01on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Deportivo Riestra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
78%
Atletico Tucuman or Deportivo Riestra
71%
Draw or Deportivo Riestra
50%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
73%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
53%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 18 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.36 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.68 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
50%
level
29%
Deportivo Riestra scores more
22%

Atletico Tucuman at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
N. SansotreDeportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra · D
8.3

Match Events

14'
M. Bajamich← R. Tesuri
39'
N. Sansotre↳ M. Sanabria
46'
D. Martinez← M. Ortiz
46'
G. Acosta← K. Lopez
53'
Mario Sanabria
60'
L. Cabrera← R. Ruiz
61'
J. Goitia← M. Sanabria
61'
A. Diaz← N. Benegas
68'
J. Randazzo← E. Tovo
70'
J. Herrera
74'
Damián Martínez
76'
G. Obredor← N. Sansotre
76'
A. Alonso← J. Herrera
79'
A. Alonso

Possession

73%Atletico

Shots

13Atletico

Pass accuracy

61%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoDeportivo
Overview
73%Possession27%
13Total Shots9
12Corners5
11Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots9
5On Target5
1Off Target3
7Blocked1
7Inside Box8
6Outside Box1
Passing
73%Possession27%
467Total Passes178
374Accurate Passes93
80%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Atletico Tucuman 0–3 Deportivo Riestra

Deportivo Riestra beat Atletico Tucuman 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 5, 2025.

Goals: N. Sansotre (39'), J. Herrera (70'), A. Alonso (79').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (73%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro in Tucuman.