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Deportivo Riestra vs Almirante Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestraadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
11/20/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio Guillermo Laza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Deportivo Riestra46%
×Draw30%
Almirante Brown24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
1.19
Almirante Brown
0.78

Deportivo Riestra creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 102 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
1.12
Almirante Brown
0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.72
Almirante Brown
1.26

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par
Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Almirante Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
76%
Deportivo Riestra or Almirante Brown
70%
Draw or Almirante Brown
54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
20%
Almirante Brown wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
12%
Almirante Brown 1+ goals
54%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
18%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
65%
Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.72 · 69 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.12 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Almirante Brown attack 0.85 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
46%
level
30%
Almirante Brown scores more
24%

Deportivo Riestra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Riestra vs Almirante Brown

Deportivo Riestra beat Almirante Brown 2-0 in Primera Nacional on November 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Laza in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.