Almirante Brown 1–0 Deportivo Riestra

Almirante Brown

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Riestra

9/18/2021

Primera Nacional · Round 26Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Almirante Brown39%

×Draw33%

Deportivo Riestra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almirante BrownExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Riestra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.80

Almirante Brown

1.00

Deportivo Riestra

0.80

Almirante Brown creates 25% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 70 away

0.97

creates per match

0.86

0.75

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Almirante Brown

0.97

Deportivo Riestra

0.86

allows per match

Almirante Brown

0.75

Deportivo Riestra

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Deportivo Riestra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw

72%

Almirante Brown or Deportivo Riestra

67%

Draw or Deportivo Riestra

61%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

63%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

26%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

8%

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

55%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.97 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.86 + Almirante Brown defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Almirante Brown scores more

39%

level

33%

Deportivo Riestra scores more

28%

Almirante Brown at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff