Deportivo Recoleta 0–3 Atlético Colegiales

Deportivo Recoleta

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Colegiales

9/18/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 27Complejo CARDIF 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta65%

×Draw19%

Atlético Colegiales16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo RecoletaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Colegiales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.00

Deportivo Recoleta

2.26

Atlético Colegiales

1.00

Deportivo Recoleta creates 126% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

2.47

creates per match

0.98

1.03

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta

2.47

Atlético Colegiales

0.98

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta

1.03

Atlético Colegiales

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

Atlético Colegiales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw

84%

Deportivo Recoleta or Atlético Colegiales

81%

Draw or Atlético Colegiales

35%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

42%

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

89%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

66%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

39%

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals

63%

Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals

26%

Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

81%

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 2.47 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.26

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

65%

level

19%

Atlético Colegiales scores more

16%

Deportivo Recoleta at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff