Atlético Colegiales 1–3 Deportivo Recoleta

Atlético Colegiales

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Deportivo Recoleta

6/12/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 12Estadio Prof. Luciano Zacarías

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Atlético Colegiales27%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Recoleta46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ColegialesExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Recoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.44

Atlético Colegiales

1.04

Deportivo Recoleta

1.44

Deportivo Recoleta creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

0.96

creates per match

1.40

1.47

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Atlético Colegiales

0.96

Deportivo Recoleta

1.40

allows per match

Atlético Colegiales

1.47

Deportivo Recoleta

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Colegiales ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Colegiales or draw

54%

Atlético Colegiales or Deportivo Recoleta

74%

Draw or Deportivo Recoleta

73%

Winning margin

Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+

10%

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals

9%

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)

37%

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Colegiales at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.96 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.40 + Atlético Colegiales defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Colegiales scores more

27%

level

26%

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

46%

Deportivo Recoleta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff