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Deportivo Recoleta vs 24 de Setiembre — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
24 de Setiembre
24 de Setiembre
5/16/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 8Complejo CARDIF 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta63%
×Draw20%
24 de Setiembre17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Recoleta
2.14
24 de Setiembre
1.02

Deportivo Recoleta creates 110% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta
2.47
24 de Setiembre
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta
1.03
24 de Setiembre
1.80

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par
24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

24 de Setiembre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw
83%
Deportivo Recoleta or 24 de Setiembre
80%
Draw or 24 de Setiembre
37%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
39%
24 de Setiembre wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
88%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
63%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
36%
24 de Setiembre 1+ goals
64%
24 de Setiembre 2+ goals
27%
24 de Setiembre 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
79%
24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

24 de Setiembre away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 2.47 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.14

24 de Setiembre attack 1.00 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more
63%
level
20%
24 de Setiembre scores more
17%

Deportivo Recoleta at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Recoleta vs 24 de Setiembre

Deportivo Recoleta and 24 de Setiembre drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on May 16, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo CARDIF 2 in Luque.