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24 de Setiembre vs Deportivo Recoleta — Division Intermedia 2018

24 de Setiembre
24 de Setiembre
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
8/24/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Próculo Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

24 de Setiembre33%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Recoleta42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

24 de Setiembre
1.33
Deportivo Recoleta
1.53

Deportivo Recoleta creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

24 de Setiembre
1.53
Deportivo Recoleta
1.40

allows per match

24 de Setiembre
1.67
Deportivo Recoleta
1.13

finishing

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par
Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 de Setiembre ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

24 de Setiembre or draw
58%
24 de Setiembre or Deportivo Recoleta
75%
Draw or Deportivo Recoleta
67%

Winning margin

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals
74%
24 de Setiembre 2+ goals
38%
24 de Setiembre 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)
44%
Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 de Setiembre at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 de Setiembre attack 1.53 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.40 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

24 de Setiembre scores more
33%
level
25%
Deportivo Recoleta scores more
42%

Deportivo Recoleta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 24 de Setiembre vs Deportivo Recoleta

24 de Setiembre and Deportivo Recoleta drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on August 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Próculo Cortázar in Areguá.