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Deportivo Pereira W vs Cortuluá W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pereira W
Deportivo Pereira W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cortuluá W
Cortuluá W
4/25/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 12Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Deportivo Pereira W41%
×Draw25%
Cortuluá W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira W
1.50
Cortuluá W
1.32

Deportivo Pereira W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira W
1.19
Cortuluá W
1.12

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira W
1.52
Cortuluá W
1.82

finishing

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par
Cortuluá W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira W ↓

Cortuluá W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira W or draw
67%
Deportivo Pereira W or Cortuluá W
75%
Draw or Cortuluá W
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+
20%
Cortuluá W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals
19%
Cortuluá W 1+ goals
73%
Cortuluá W 2+ goals
38%
Cortuluá W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)
55%
Cortuluá W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Cortuluá W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.19 + Cortuluá W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cortuluá W attack 1.12 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Pereira W scores more
41%
level
25%
Cortuluá W scores more
33%

Deportivo Pereira W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Pereira W 1–2 Cortuluá W

Cortuluá W beat Deportivo Pereira W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on April 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.