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Cortuluá W vs Deportivo Pereira W — Liga Femenina 2020

Cortuluá W
Cortuluá W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Pereira W
Deportivo Pereira W
3/9/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 5Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cortuluá W41%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Pereira W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortuluá W
1.23
Deportivo Pereira W
1.02

Cortuluá W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Cortuluá W
1.06
Deportivo Pereira W
1.11

allows per match

Cortuluá W
0.94
Deportivo Pereira W
1.41

finishing

Cortuluá W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortuluá W ↓

Deportivo Pereira W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cortuluá W or draw
69%
Cortuluá W or Deportivo Pereira W
71%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira W
59%

Winning margin

Cortuluá W wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cortuluá W 1+ goals
71%
Cortuluá W 2+ goals
35%
Cortuluá W 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cortuluá W (draw refunded)
57%
Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortuluá W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Deportivo Pereira W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortuluá W attack 1.06 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.11 + Cortuluá W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cortuluá W scores more
41%
level
29%
Deportivo Pereira W scores more
31%

Cortuluá W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cortuluá W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Cortuluá W 0–1 Deportivo Pereira W

Deportivo Pereira W beat Cortuluá W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre in Tuluá.