Deportivo Pereira W 1–1 Atlético Nacional W

Deportivo Pereira W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Nacional W

4/1/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 9Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Pereira W28%

×Draw27%

Atlético Nacional W45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Pereira WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Nacional W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.42

Deportivo Pereira W

1.07

Atlético Nacional W

1.42

Atlético Nacional W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 56 away

1.19

creates per match

1.32

1.52

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira W

1.19

Atlético Nacional W

1.32

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira W

1.52

Atlético Nacional W

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira W ↓

Atlético Nacional W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira W or draw

55%

Deportivo Pereira W or Atlético Nacional W

73%

Draw or Atlético Nacional W

72%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+

11%

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals

9%

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals

76%

Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals

41%

Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)

39%

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Atlético Nacional W away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.19 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.32 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Pereira W scores more

28%

level

27%

Atlético Nacional W scores more

45%

Atlético Nacional W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff