Atlético Nacional W 6–0 Deportivo Pereira W

Atlético Nacional W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Pereira W

5/11/2024

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 11Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Nacional W55%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Pereira W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Nacional WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.91

Atlético Nacional W

1.67

Deportivo Pereira W

0.91

Atlético Nacional W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 27 away

1.93

creates per match

1.11

0.70

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Atlético Nacional W

1.93

Deportivo Pereira W

1.11

allows per match

Atlético Nacional W

0.70

Deportivo Pereira W

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Nacional W ↓

Deportivo Pereira W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Nacional W or draw

80%

Atlético Nacional W or Deportivo Pereira W

76%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira W

45%

Winning margin

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+

30%

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals

81%

Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals

50%

Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals

23%

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)

73%

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Nacional W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.70 · 57 matches

Deportivo Pereira W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.93 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.11 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlético Nacional W scores more

55%

level

24%

Deportivo Pereira W scores more

20%

Atlético Nacional W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff