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Deportivo Pereira W vs América de Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pereira W
Deportivo Pereira W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
América de Cali W
América de Cali W
5/18/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 16Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Pereira W23%
×Draw24%
América de Cali W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira W
1.03
América de Cali W
1.69

América de Cali W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira W
1.19
América de Cali W
1.85

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira W
1.52
América de Cali W
0.87

finishing

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par
América de Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira W ↓

América de Cali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira W or draw
47%
Deportivo Pereira W or América de Cali W
76%
Draw or América de Cali W
77%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+
8%
América de Cali W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals
9%
América de Cali W 1+ goals
82%
América de Cali W 2+ goals
50%
América de Cali W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)
30%
América de Cali W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

América de Cali W away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.19 + América de Cali W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

América de Cali W attack 1.85 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Pereira W scores more
23%
level
24%
América de Cali W scores more
53%

América de Cali W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Pereira W 1–4 América de Cali W

América de Cali W beat Deportivo Pereira W 4-1 in Liga Femenina on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.