América de Cali W 2–0 Deportivo Pereira W

América de Cali W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Pereira W

5/26/2022

Liga Femenina · Semi-finalsEstadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

América de Cali W56%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Pereira W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

América de Cali WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.89

América de Cali W

1.69

Deportivo Pereira W

0.89

América de Cali W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

1.97

creates per match

1.11

0.66

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

América de Cali W

1.97

Deportivo Pereira W

1.11

allows per match

América de Cali W

0.66

Deportivo Pereira W

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

América de Cali W+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América de Cali W ↓

Deportivo Pereira W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

América de Cali W or draw

80%

América de Cali W or Deportivo Pereira W

76%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira W

44%

Winning margin

América de Cali W wins by 2+

31%

Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

América de Cali W 1+ goals

82%

América de Cali W 2+ goals

50%

América de Cali W 3+ goals

24%

Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals

59%

Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals

22%

Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

América de Cali W (draw refunded)

74%

Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América de Cali W at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.66 · 61 matches

Deportivo Pereira W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América de Cali W attack 1.97 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.69

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.11 + América de Cali W defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

América de Cali W scores more

56%

level

24%

Deportivo Pereira W scores more

20%

América de Cali W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff