Deportivo Pereira 3–2 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pereira

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Millonarios

D. Quintero 75'

G. Torres 45'

Y. Cabrera 27' (pen)

S. Giordana 90'

L. Castro 10'

10/15/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Pereira34%

×Draw28%

Millonarios38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.23

Deportivo Pereira

1.13

Millonarios

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.09

creates per match

1.16

1.30

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.09

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.30

Millonarios

1.16

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.36scores more

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

62%

Deportivo Pereira or Millonarios

72%

Draw or Millonarios

66%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

14%

Millonarios wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

11%

Millonarios 1+ goals

71%

Millonarios 2+ goals

35%

Millonarios 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

47%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.09 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

34%

level

28%

Millonarios scores more

38%

Millonarios at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Ichazo

Deportivo Pereira · G

9.2

Match Events

10'

L. Castro↳ H. Palacios

12'

Helibelton PalaciosGoal confirmed

16'

Dewar Victoria

21'

Danovis Banguero

26'

Alex Moreno

27'

Y. CabreraPenalty

37'

Kelvin Osorio

45'

G. Torres↳ E. Velasco

46'

J. Hurtado← D. S. Victoria Palacios

66'

E. Mosquera← B. D. Castro Espinosa

69'

Gustavo Torres

71'

J. A. Bermudez Correa← Kelvin Osorio

71'

W. Pacheco← J. Ararat

73'

D. Silva← J. N. Arevalo Chaparro

73'

S. Giordana← L. Castro

74'

Jorge Hurtado

75'

D. Quintero↳ E. Velasco

78'

C. Canozales← A. Castro

79'

Helibelton Palacios

85'

O. Albornoz← D. Quintero

90+2'

Jorge Bermúdez

90'

S. Acosta← Y. Cabrera

90'

A. Estacio← J. Largacha

90'

S. Giordana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoMillonarios

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots15

4Corners8

13Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target8

3Off Target5

5Blocked2

11Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

247Total Passes307

181Accurate Passes226

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1