Deportivo Pereira 2–2 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pereira

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Millonarios

D. Quintero 90+1'

D. Alfonzo 50' (OG)

J. Pereira 62' (pen)

D. Ruiz 35'

5/25/2024

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 5Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Pereira34%

×Draw28%

Millonarios38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.23

Deportivo Pereira

1.13

Millonarios

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.09

creates per match

1.16

1.30

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.09

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.30

Millonarios

1.16

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.36scores more

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

62%

Deportivo Pereira or Millonarios

72%

Draw or Millonarios

66%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

14%

Millonarios wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

11%

Millonarios 1+ goals

71%

Millonarios 2+ goals

35%

Millonarios 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

47%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.09 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

34%

level

28%

Millonarios scores more

38%

Millonarios at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Quintero

Deportivo Pereira · M

8.0

Match Events

24'

David Macalister Silva

35'

D. Ruiz↳ J. Carvajal

50'

D. AlfonzoOwn goal

58'

David Macalister SilvaPenalty confirmed

60'

Jeison Suárez

60'

Daniel Giraldo

61'

Juan David Ríos

62'

J. PereiraPenalty

71'

D. Banguero← J. Arias

72'

73'

75'

76'

78'

78'

81'

S. Merheg← Ederson Moreno

85'

L. Vásquez← D. Ruiz

86'

L. Paredes← E. Rodríguez

86'

S. Giordana← J. Carvajal

90+9'

J. Mena← A. Piedrahita

90+1'

D. Quintero↳ S. Merheg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoMillonarios

Overview

60%Possession40%

21Total Shots16

7Corners3

12Fouls4

Shots

21Total Shots16

2On Target7

13Off Target6

6Blocked3

14Inside Box11

7Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

393Total Passes268

321Accurate Passes205

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls4

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios

Deportivo Pereira and Millonarios drew 2-2 in Primera A on May 25, 2024.

Goals: D. Ruiz (35'), D. Alfonzo (50' o.g.), J. Pereira (62' pen), D. Quintero (90+1').

Deportivo Pereira controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.

Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios