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Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
Preview
21:10
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
9/26/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 12Santiago de las Atalayas
Big match
44%
Deportivo Pereira
model favours
44%28%29%

90% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Deportivo Pereira44%
×Draw28%
Internacional de Bogota29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.32
Internacional de Bogota
1.01

Deportivo Pereira creates 31% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 171 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.24
Internacional de Bogota
0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.13
Internacional de Bogota
1.41

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
71%
Deportivo Pereira or Internacional de Bogota
72%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
20%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
15%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
64%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
27%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
60%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.13 · 127 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.24 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
44%
level
28%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
29%

Deportivo Pereira at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches
  • Deportivo Pereira raise their game against the top half — 32% wins vs the upper half, only 5% vs the lower
  • Internacional de Bogota win just 27% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
  • Deportivo Pereira sit 15, Internacional de Bogota 5 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Deportivo Pereira
Balanced
Internacional de Bogota
Balanced
48%Possession46%
78%Pass accuracy76%
11.8Shots12.4
1.09xGBiggest gap0.97
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportivo PereiraInternacional de Bogota

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Deportivo Pereira
2
Draws
3
Internacional de Bogota
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 40%
2–20–42–03–04–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pereira
WDWDL
Bogota
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Pereira host Internacional de Bogota

September 26, 2026: Deportivo Pereira take on Internacional de Bogota in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Pereira host Internacional de Bogota at Santiago de las Atalayas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.