Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali

Deportivo Pereira

Preview

19:00

Deportivo Cali

10/11/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 14Santiago de las Atalayas

Big match

44%

Deportivo Pereira

model favours

44%27%29%

90% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Pereira44%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cali29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.06

Deportivo Pereira

1.36

Deportivo Cali

1.06

Deportivo Pereira creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 46 away

1.35

creates per match

0.93

1.19

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.35

Deportivo Cali

0.93

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.19

Deportivo Cali

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

71%

Deportivo Pereira or Deportivo Cali

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

60%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.35 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Cali attack 0.93 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

44%

level

27%

Deportivo Cali scores more

29%

Deportivo Pereira at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row
Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Both teams score in only 20% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches
Deportivo Pereira raise their game against the top half — 17% wins vs the upper half, only 6% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Deportivo Pereira

Balanced

Deportivo Cali

Balanced

47%PossessionBiggest gap50%

78%Pass accuracy78%

11.7Shots11.8

1.09xG1.09

Deportivo PereiraDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

Deportivo Pereira

1

Draws

2

Deportivo Cali

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 20%

0–10–12–02–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Pereira

WDWDL

Cali

WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff