Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Cali vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
J. Martinez 9'
10/4/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deportivo Cali50%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pereira23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.43
Deportivo Pereira
0.86

Deportivo Cali creates 66% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 33 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.13
Deportivo Pereira
0.70

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
1.02
Deportivo Pereira
1.73

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
77%
Deportivo Cali or Deportivo Pereira
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
25%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
58%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 48 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.13 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.70 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
50%
level
27%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
23%

Deportivo Cali at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. MartinezDeportivo CaliDeportivo Cali · M
8.7

Match Events

5'
Victor Mejia
9'
J. Martinez
24'
Andrey Estupiñán
26'
Johan MartínezPenalty confirmed
29'
Walmer Pacheco
29'
José Moya
45+6'
Andres Correa
45+6'
Yesus Cabrera
46'
Luis Orejuela← J. Aponza
46'
J. Ararat← W. Pacheco
46'
M. Perez← V. Mejia
66'
O. Albornoz← E. Velasco
66'
G. Torres← S. J. Merheg
72'
M. Orozco← J. Montoya
78'
Matias OrozcoGoal cancelled
78'
F. Mimbacas← A. Estupinan
79'
A. Estacio← Kelvin Osorio
81'
Juan David Ríos
85'
Adrián Estacio
85'
Marco Pérez
90+3'
Luis Orejuela
90+3'
José Moya
90+3'
José Moya
90+6'
G. Corujo←

Possession

39%Deportivo

Shots

14Deportivo

Pass accuracy

47%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoDeportivo
Overview
39%Possession61%
14Total Shots10
6Corners2
16Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots10
5On Target1
6Off Target7
3Blocked2
11Inside Box8
3Outside Box2
Passing
39%Possession61%
249Total Passes402
171Accurate Passes316
69%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls17
3Yellow Cards8
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Primera A: Deportivo Cali 1–0 Deportivo Pereira

Deportivo Cali beat Deportivo Pereira 1-0 in Primera A on October 4, 2025.

Goals: J. Martinez (9').

Deportivo Pereira controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.