Deportivo Pereira 2–0 Deportivo Cali

Deportivo Pereira

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Cali

D. Quintero 63'

S. J. Merheg 30'

4/15/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Pereira43%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cali30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.09

Deportivo Pereira

1.38

Deportivo Cali

1.09

Deportivo Pereira creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 47 away

1.38

creates per match

0.96

1.22

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.38

Deportivo Cali

0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.22

Deportivo Cali

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

70%

Deportivo Pereira or Deportivo Cali

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.38 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Deportivo Cali attack 0.96 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

43%

level

27%

Deportivo Cali scores more

30%

Deportivo Pereira at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Quintero

Deportivo Pereira · M

7.7

Match Events

23'

Guzmán Corujo

30'

S. J. Merheg↳ S. Aguilar

46'

Y. A. Gomez Mosquera← G. Cabezas

46'

J. C. Caldera Alvis← G. Corujo

46'

R. Bustamante← V. Mejia

55'

F. Castillo← C. Graciano

59'

Juan David Ríos

63'

D. Quintero

66'

Jeison Suárez

67'

J. Cantillo← Javier Reina

70'

d. J. Diaz Montes J.← J. Largacha

75'

Darwin Quintero

79'

J. A. Bermudez Correa← J. Rios

80'

S. Urrea← D. Quintero

85'

Jaime Diaz

86'

G. Pena← S. J. Merheg

87'

L. Mosquera← Y. Quinones

89'

Jean Colorado

90+2'

Kelvin Osorio

90+4'

Rafael Bustamante

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoDeportivo

Overview

37%Possession63%

12Total Shots10

3Corners3

22Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target3

4Off Target6

2Blocked1

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

253Total Passes435

182Accurate Passes351

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls12

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali

Deportivo Pereira beat Deportivo Cali 2-0 in Primera A on April 15, 2025.

Goals: S. J. Merheg (30'), D. Quintero (63').

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.

Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali