Deportivo Pereira 1–2 Cucuta: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pereira

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cucuta

S. García 38'

D. Echeverri 78'

C. Álvarez 43'

5/30/2017

Primera B · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Pereira49%

×Draw28%

Cucuta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchCucuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.83

Deportivo Pereira

1.36

Cucuta

0.83

Deportivo Pereira creates 64% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 91 away

1.59

creates per match

1.09

0.56

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.59

Cucuta

1.09

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

0.56

Cucuta

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Cucuta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Cucuta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

77%

Deportivo Pereira or Cucuta

72%

Draw or Cucuta

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

24%

Cucuta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

16%

Cucuta 1+ goals

56%

Cucuta 2+ goals

20%

Cucuta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

68%

Cucuta (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.56 · 34 matches

Cucuta away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.14 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.59 + Cucuta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cucuta attack 1.09 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

49%

level

28%

Cucuta scores more

23%

Deportivo Pereira at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

S. García

43'

C. Álvarez

61'

H. Reina← P. Rossi

67'

D. Echeverri← J. Balanta

76'

Ó. Rodas← G. Vidal

78'

D. Echeverri

79'

J. Núñez← Erwin Carrillo

85'

M. Bajter← J. Campuzano

88'

A. Alba← C. Álvarez

Deportivo

Cucuta

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Bulleri

61'▲H. Reina←▼P. Rossi

76'▲Ó. Rodas←▼G. Vidal

85'▲M. Bajter←▼J. Campuzano

Deportivo Pereira substitutes

ReinaRodasBajterPalacioEspinelCastilloLozano

Manager: F. Robatto

67'▲D. Echeverri←▼J. Balanta

79'▲J. Núñez←▼Erwin Carrillo

88'▲A. Alba←▼C. Álvarez

Cucuta substitutes

EcheverriNúñezAlbaCastroMosquera

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Cucuta

Cucuta beat Deportivo Pereira 2-1 in Primera B on May 30, 2017.

Goals: S. García (38'), C. Álvarez (43'), D. Echeverri (78').

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira).

Deportivo Pereira vs Cucuta — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Cucuta