Cucuta 2–1 Deportivo Pereira: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Deportivo Pereira

J. Agudelo 45'

J. Castro 17'

D. Echeverri 23'

3/21/2018

Primera B · Round 5Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cucuta50%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Pereira23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.92

Cucuta

1.48

Deportivo Pereira

0.92

Cucuta creates 61% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 31 away

1.77

creates per match

1.10

0.73

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Cucuta

1.77

Deportivo Pereira

1.10

allows per match

Cucuta

0.73

Deportivo Pereira

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

77%

Cucuta or Deportivo Pereira

74%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

50%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

77%

Cucuta 2+ goals

43%

Cucuta 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

68%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.77 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.10 + Cucuta defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cucuta scores more

50%

level

26%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

23%

Cucuta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Castro

23'

D. Echeverri

45'

J. Agudelo

46'

Á. Meléndez← J. Flórez

46'

Y. Mena← F. Salazar

62'

L. Guaycochea← J. Rangel

71'

R. Navarro← E. Móvil

78'

J. Obrian← L. Miranda

88'

J. Núñez← J. Solano

Cucuta

Deportivo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: L. Pusineri

62'▲L. Guaycochea←▼J. Rangel

78'▲J. Obrian←▼L. Miranda

88'▲J. Núñez←▼J. Solano

Cucuta substitutes

GuaycocheaObrianNúñezCarreroVásquezSilvaCaballero

Manager: J. Santa

46'▲Á. Meléndez←▼J. Flórez

46'▲Y. Mena←▼F. Salazar

71'▲R. Navarro←▼E. Móvil

Deportivo Pereira substitutes

MeléndezMenaNavarroCórdobaCastilloNúñezCano