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Deportivo Pereira vs Cortulua — Primera B 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cortulua
Cortulua
10/31/2019Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 3Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Deportivo Pereira51%
×Draw26%
Cortulua22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.50
Cortulua
0.89

Deportivo Pereira creates 69% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 93 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.57
Cortulua
1.23

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
0.55
Cortulua
1.43

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
78%
Deportivo Pereira or Cortulua
74%
Draw or Cortulua
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
26%
Cortulua wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
19%
Cortulua 1+ goals
59%
Cortulua 2+ goals
22%
Cortulua 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
70%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.55 · 40 matches

Cortulua away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.57 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cortulua attack 1.23 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
51%
level
26%
Cortulua scores more
22%

Deportivo Pereira at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Cortulua

Deportivo Pereira beat Cortulua 1-0 in Primera B on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira).