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Cortulua vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera B 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
11/10/2019Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Doce de Octubre (Tuluá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Cortulua46%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pereira27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.42
Deportivo Pereira
1.02

Cortulua creates 39% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 41 away

creates per match

Cortulua
1.62
Deportivo Pereira
1.29

allows per match

Cortulua
0.76
Deportivo Pereira
1.22

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
73%
Cortulua or Deportivo Pereira
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
54%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
76%
Cortulua 2+ goals
41%
Cortulua 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.29 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cortulua scores more
46%
level
27%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
27%

Cortulua at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cortulua 3–1 Deportivo Pereira

Cortulua beat Deportivo Pereira 3-1 in Primera B on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre (Tuluá).