Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pereira

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bucaramanga

L. Flores 90'

8/30/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Deportivo Pereira37%

×Draw29%

Bucaramanga34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.09

Deportivo Pereira

1.14

Bucaramanga

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.09

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.09

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.30

Bucaramanga

1.19

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.36scores more

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

66%

Deportivo Pereira or Bucaramanga

71%

Draw or Bucaramanga

63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

15%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

11%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

66%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

30%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

52%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.09 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

37%

level

29%

Bucaramanga scores more

34%

Deportivo Pereira at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

L. Flores

Bucaramanga · M

7.6

Match Events

3'

Fabián Sambueza

12'

Jhon LargachaGoal cancelled

55'

Bayron Duarte

56'

C. Romana← J. Mena

60'

Jhon Largacha

65'

Y. Cabrera← Y. Quinones

65'

V. Mejia← J. Rios

71'

71'

71'

71'

71'

75'

M. Perez← S. J. Merheg

75'

78'

78'

78'

82'

J. Ararat← W. Pacheco

87'

Faber Andrés Gil

87'

L. Flores← F. A. Gil Mosquera

90+10'

Leonardo Flores

90'

L. Flores

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoBucaramanga

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots15

6Corners5

13Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target5

4Off Target9

1Blocked1

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

319Total Passes367

257Accurate Passes299

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls9

4Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards2

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Bucaramanga

Bucaramanga beat Deportivo Pereira 1-0 in Primera A on August 30, 2025.

Goals: L. Flores (90').

Bucaramanga controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Pereira.

Deportivo Pereira vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Bucaramanga