Bucaramanga 0–1 Deportivo Pereira: Result & Stats

Bucaramanga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Pereira

J. Medranda 90'

3/14/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 9Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bucaramanga52%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pereira19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BucaramangaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.66

Bucaramanga

1.29

Deportivo Pereira

0.66

Bucaramanga creates 95% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

0.60

0.72

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Bucaramanga

1.29

Deportivo Pereira

0.60

allows per match

Bucaramanga

0.72

Deportivo Pereira

1.28

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Bucaramanga+0.21scores more

Deportivo Pereira-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw

81%

Bucaramanga or Deportivo Pereira

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

48%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

72%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

37%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

48%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

73%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 12 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.29 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.60 + Bucaramanga defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bucaramanga scores more

52%

level

29%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

19%

Bucaramanga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

L. Flores

Bucaramanga · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

13'

33'

46'

48'

56'

63'

L. Mosquera← Y. Cabrera

63'

A. Estacio← Y. Quinones

64'

Jhon Vasquez← D. Chavez

78'

Salvador Ichazo

82'

Jean Carlos Blanco

85'

S. Cardenas← F. Sambueza

90+4'

E. A. Moreno Gomez← Kelvin Osorio

90'

J. Medranda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BucaramangaDeportivo

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots8

3Corners3

11Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots8

6On Target3

12Off Target4

0Blocked1

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

483Total Passes352

392Accurate Passes259

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Primera A: Bucaramanga 0–1 Deportivo Pereira

Deportivo Pereira beat Bucaramanga 1-0 in Primera A on March 14, 2025.

Goals: J. Medranda (90').

Bucaramanga controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado in Floridablanca.

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Bucaramanga 0–1 Deportivo Pereira