Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pereira

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Nacional

11/8/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Deportivo Pereira36%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.17

Deportivo Pereira

1.16

Atletico Nacional

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 195 away

1.24

creates per match

1.22

1.13

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.24

Atletico Nacional

1.22

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.13

Atletico Nacional

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

64%

Deportivo Pereira or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

50%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.13 · 127 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 195 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.24 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

36%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

36%

Deportivo Pereira at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff