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Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
2/10/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Atletico Nacional55%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Pereira20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.63
Deportivo Pereira
0.88

Atletico Nacional creates 85% more chances

Season form · 193 home / 131 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.83
Deportivo Pereira
0.93

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.83
Deportivo Pereira
1.43

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
80%
Atletico Nacional or Deportivo Pereira
75%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
45%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
30%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
48%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
73%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 193 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.83 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
55%
level
25%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
20%

Atletico Nacional at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira

Atletico Nacional beat Deportivo Pereira 3-0 in Primera A on February 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.