Deportivo Pereira 2–0 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pereira

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

Y. Cabrera 90'

J. Quintero 12'

10/20/2023

Copa Colombia · Semi-finalsEstadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Deportivo Pereira47%

×Draw27%

Atletico Nacional26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.95

Deportivo Pereira

1.39

Atletico Nacional

0.95

Deportivo Pereira creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.56

creates per match

1.30

0.60

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.56

Atletico Nacional

1.30

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

0.60

Atletico Nacional

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

74%

Deportivo Pereira or Atletico Nacional

73%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

23%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

16%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

61%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

65%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.56 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Atletico Nacional attack 1.30 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

47%

level

27%

Atletico Nacional scores more

26%

Deportivo Pereira at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

24'

24'

24'

45'

45+3'

46'

Jhon Duque← J. Torres

61'

J. Asprilla← Jefferson Duque

70'

C. Blanco← Y. Súarez

70'

K. Valencia← Arley Rodríguez

70'

Y. Cabrera← J. Bocanegra

74'

Y. Mena← Ó. Perea

77'

D. Hernández← J. Quintero

81'

D. Hernandez

85'

E. Murillo← M. Medina

85'

S. Mosquera← D. Pabón

88'

88'

89'

90'

Deportivo

Atletico

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Restrepo

70'▲C. Blanco←▼Y. Súarez

70'▲K. Valencia←▼Arley Rodríguez

70'▲Y. Cabrera←▼J. Bocanegra

77'▲D. Hernández←▼J. Quintero

85'▲E. Murillo←▼M. Medina

Deportivo Pereira substitutes

BlancoValenciaCabreraHernándezMurilloPiedrahitaLondoño

Manager: J. Bodmer

46'▲Jhon Duque←▼J. Torres

61'▲J. Asprilla←▼Jefferson Duque

74'▲Y. Mena←▼Ó. Perea

85'▲S. Mosquera←▼D. Pabón

Atletico Nacional substitutes

DuqueAsprillaMenaMosqueraCastilloCanteraLicona

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pereira beat Atletico Nacional 2-0 in Copa Colombia on October 20, 2023.

Goals: J. Quintero (12'), Y. Cabrera (90').

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.

Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Nacional — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Nacional