Deportivo Pereira 3–2 Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pereira

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Nacional

A. Piedrahita 90+4'

W. De La Rosa 63', 60'

D. Banguero 79'

J. Duque 48'

10/3/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Deportivo Pereira33%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.23

Deportivo Pereira

1.10

Atletico Nacional

1.23

Atletico Nacional creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

1.09

creates per match

1.15

1.30

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.09

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.30

Atletico Nacional

1.10

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.36scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

61%

Deportivo Pereira or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

67%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

13%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

35%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

46%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.09 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

33%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

39%

Atletico Nacional at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

W. De La Rosa

Deportivo Pereira · M

8.3

Match Events

37'

M. Medina

45+3'

A. Andrade

48'

J. Duque↳ A. Andrade

55'

D. CanoGoal Disallowed - Foul

60'

63'

65'

70'

71'

71'

72'

A. Castro← J. Barrera

77'

R. Navarro← H. Rojas

79'

D. Banguero↳ A. Andrade

80'

B. León← J. Valencia

80'

E. Valencia← B. Castrillón

82'

J. Duque

83'

J. Marulanda← A. Andrade

88'

A. Piedrahita← W. De La Rosa

90+7'

R. Navarro

90+4'

A. Piedrahita↳ B. León

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAtletico

Overview

35%Possession65%

16Total Shots8

5Corners5

15Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots8

5On Target4

6Off Target1

5Blocked3

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

242Total Passes474

179Accurate Passes416

74%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pereira beat Atletico Nacional 3-2 in Primera A on October 3, 2021.

Goals: J. Duque (48'), W. De La Rosa (60', 63'), D. Banguero (79'), A. Piedrahita (90+4').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (65%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.

Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Nacional