Deportivo Pereira 2–1 America de Cali

Deportivo Pereira

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

8/14/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 7Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Deportivo Pereira40%

×Draw28%

America de Cali32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Deportivo Pereira

1.25

America de Cali

1.08

Deportivo Pereira creates 16% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 191 away

1.24

creates per match

1.04

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.24

America de Cali

1.04

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.13

America de Cali

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

68%

Deportivo Pereira or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

18%

America de Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

13%

America de Cali 1+ goals

66%

America de Cali 2+ goals

29%

America de Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

56%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.13 · 127 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 191 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.24 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

40%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

32%

Deportivo Pereira at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff