Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

America de Cali vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
3/2/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

America de Cali51%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pereira22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
1.46
Deportivo Pereira
0.85

America de Cali creates 72% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 131 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.49
Deportivo Pereira
0.93

allows per match

America de Cali
0.77
Deportivo Pereira
1.43

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
78%
America de Cali or Deportivo Pereira
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
49%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
77%
America de Cali 2+ goals
43%
America de Cali 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
57%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 190 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.49 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + America de Cali defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

America de Cali scores more
51%
level
27%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
22%

America de Cali at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Deportivo Pereira

America de Cali beat Deportivo Pereira 2-0 in Primera A on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.