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Deportivo Pereira vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
5/18/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 20Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Deportivo Pereira47%
×Draw27%
Alianza Valledupar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pereira
1.37
Alianza Valledupar
0.94

Deportivo Pereira creates 46% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 167 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.24
Alianza Valledupar
0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira
1.13
Alianza Valledupar
1.50

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw
74%
Deportivo Pereira or Alianza Valledupar
73%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
22%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
16%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
61%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
24%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
64%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.13 · 127 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.24 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more
47%
level
27%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
26%

Deportivo Pereira at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pereira vs Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pereira beat Alianza Valledupar 2-1 in Primera A on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas in Pereira.